Who is to blame?

Germany

The Allied and Associated Governments affirm and Germany accepts the responsibility of Germany and her allies for causing all the loss and damage to which the Allied and Associated Governments and their nationals have been subjected as a consequence of the war imposed upon them by the aggression of Germany and her allies. [Article 231, Treaty of Versailles]

Nobody

How was it that the world was so unexpectedly plunged into this terrible conflict? Who was responsible? . . . The nations slithered over the brink into the boiling cauldron of war without a trace of apprehension or dismay. [David Lloyd George. British Prime Minister, 1916-1921]

Russia and France

The chief objects of Russian and French foreign policy, seizure of the Straits and the return of Alsace-Lorraine, could be realized only through a general European war…. In estimating the order of guilt of the various countries we may safely say that the only direct and immediate responsibility for the World War falls upon Serbia, France and Russia, with the guilt about equally divided. [Harry Elmer Barnes. American historian]

Everybody

The outbreak of war in 1914 is not an Agatha Christie drama at the end of which we will discover the culprit standing over a corpse in the conservatory with a smoking pistol. There is no smoking gun in this story; or, rather, there is one in the hands of every major character. Viewed in this light, the outbreak of war was a tragedy, not a crime. [Christopher Clark. Australian historian]

Austria-Hungary

… Austria-Hungary made the conscious decision to launch a Balkan war in order to reduce Serbia to the status of at best a semi-protectorate, and to appeal to its ally in Berlin for support in case the Austro-Serbian conflict escalated into a general European war. Unfortunately, Austria-Hungary’s culpability for the start of the First World War has been overshadowed for far too long … [Holger H. Herwig. Canadian historian]

Inflexible Military Plans

When cut down to essentials, the sole cause for the outbreak of war in 1914 was the Schlieffen plan …. Yet the Germans had no deliberate aim of subverting the liberties of Europe. No one had time for a deliberate aim or time to think. All were trapped by the ingenuity of their military preparations, the Germans most of all. [A J P Taylor. British historian]

Germany

As Germany willed and coveted the Austro-Serbian war and, in her confidence in her military superiority, deliberately faced the risk of a conflict with Russia and France, her leaders must bear a substantial share of the historical responsibility for the outbreak of general war in 1914. [Fritz Fischer. German historian]

France and Russia

… the Triple Entente fought to dismember the Austro-Hungarian monarchy and reconquer Alsace-Lorraine, while the Central Powers fought to defend their existing territory. France and Russia played their traditional role as the expansionist Powers of Europe … [Edward E McCullogh. Canadian historian]

Germany and Austria-Hungary

War had been no accident … it was the consequence of decisions taken in Berlin and Vienna, and the result of attitudes which regarded war not as the ultimate catastrophe, but a necessary, or even desirable evil and as a way of continuing foreign policy by other means. [Annika Mombauer. British historian]

Underlying Causes versus Immediate Causes

The Timeline concentrates on the immediate causes of the war.

Most books about the origins of World War One examine the underlying or long term causes; the rival alliances*, the armaments race, domestic issues, cultural trends, and overseas and economic competition, even if they have a chapter on the July Crisis. See Book Store.

* The Triple Entente (The Franco-Russian Alliance and Britain) and the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy)

This is not to say that underlying causes are more important than immediate causes. One type works with the other. If there are no immediate causes the underlying or long term issues don’t cause anything, they remain issues which can change or eventually fade away!

Equally, a political misjudgement, a foolhardy decision, might not have such disastrous consequences without the there being a larger issue.

We think the immediate causes bring out more clearly the human factors; ignorance, incompetence, miscalculation, and even bad organisation. And, these were greatly present in July 1914.

And, paradoxically, the Timeline with its concentration on immediate causes is a useful tool for a better understanding of long term causes. It draws attention to the occasions when the underlying causes were at their greatest relevance.

Why were the Austro-Hungarians so overwhelmingly and so quickly in favour of attacking and dismembering Serbia? What were the German leaders hoping for when they gave their unqualified support to Austria-Hungary on the 5 July? Why on the 24/25 July was Russia so quick to take military steps? Why did the French support them? Did the British really have to delay until the 2 August when Belgium was threatened to make up their mind?

Many of the [More] links go into these issues.